TULSA – Everyone loves a good Cinderella story.
Ever seen a movie where the popular cheerleader and the captain of the football team get together and live happily ever after? Of course not. That's boring.
This weekend, FC Tulsa represents the forgotten step-sister at the ball looking to play spoiler.
While given only a 24% chance to beat the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rowdies on the road this weekend by FiveThirtyEight, FC Tulsa won't be fazed by the pressure. The club is coming off a huge win over its rivals from OKC, won the Wrench, and has that signature FC Tulsa swagger back that carried it through multiple win streaks throughout the season. With its re-established momentum and confidence, FC Tulsa will stride into its Eastern Conference Quarterfinals match on Saturday knowing that the No. 1 seed getting an automatic win in the first round is far from a given.
From 2015-2019, the first seed has lost three times in the USL Championship Playoffs. The 2020 COVID-altered season followed a different format where group winners from the regular season faced off against one another in the Playoffs, so there was not a true seeding structure as there had been in past years.
In 2015, LA Galaxy II was victorious over the No. 1 seed Orange County Blues 2-0 in the second round as Orange County had a first-round bye, the last time the USL Championship implemented a bye week for the top seed. The Los Angeles club would advance all the way to the Finals that season before coming up short with a chance to win it all.
The Orange County Blues would bounce back to beat the No. 1 seed Sacramento Republic FC in the Playoffs the following season in 2016. The match was even at 0-0 at the end of regulation, forcing a shootout that was Orange County topple the favored club 5-4.
Just as Orange County did before them, future Roughneck Sammy Ochoa and the rest of the Sacramento squad would rebound the following Playoffs after being upset as the top seed to knock off a No. 1 seed themselves. This time it was Real Monarchs, the No. 1 seed from the East that season, who fell victim in a shootout following a 0-0 score after 90 minutes. Sacramento would advance after outscoring Monarchs 3-1 in the shootout.
Not only is it uncommon to see a lower-seeded club knock off a top seed, but you may have noticed another trend too – a good portion of these matches come down to penalty shootouts after regulation. Two of the three times a one seed as lost in the Playoffs in the last six years have come down to shootouts, and two other No. 1 seeds in 2018 and 2019 got through by the skin of their teeth.
In 2018, Nashville SC took the No. 1 seed FC Cincinnati and current Rowdies defender Forrest Lasso to a shootout, but FC Cincinnati pulled it out 6-5. The following season in 2019, top seed Phoenix Rising FC, the club that scored a USL Championship record 89 goals that season, was forced into a penalty shootout after 90 minutes of 0-0 match with Austin Bold FC and narrowly escaped the first round with an 8-7 shootout win.
In total, the No. 1 seed’s fate has come down to a penalty shootout four times from 2015-2019. This shootout inclination in the USL Championship Conference Quarterfinals provides an interesting prospect for FC Tulsa. On the year, FC Tulsa is 6-for-8 in penalty kick opportunities this season whereas Tampa Bay is 5-for-8. However, Rowdies’ keeper Evan Louro has faced six PK attempts this season, saving three of them with one missing the target. If it comes down to another shootout in the first round of the Playoffs, it will pit great FC Tulsa shooters against a great Tampa Bay Rowdies goalkeeper against one another.
In soccer, nothing is guaranteed. The underdog has the same opportunity to steal a match as the favorites do. USL Championship history has proved that the No. 1 seed is far from safe in the first round.
Can FC Tulsa fit into the glass slipper on Saturday night? It's not as impossible as you might think.
TULSA – Everyone loves a good Cinderella story.
Ever seen a movie where the popular cheerleader and the captain of the football team get together and live happily ever after? Of course not. That’s boring.
This weekend, FC Tulsa represents the forgotten step-sister at the ball looking to play spoiler.
While given only a 24% chance to beat the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rowdies on the road this weekend by FiveThirtyEight, FC Tulsa won’t be fazed by the pressure. The club is coming off a huge win over its rivals from OKC, won the Wrench, and has that signature FC Tulsa swagger back that carried it through multiple win streaks throughout the season. With its re-established momentum and confidence, FC Tulsa will stride into its Eastern Conference Quarterfinals match on Saturday knowing that the No. 1 seed getting an automatic win in the first round is far from a given.
From 2015-2019, the first seed has lost three times in the USL Championship Playoffs. The 2020 COVID-altered season followed a different format where group winners from the regular season faced off against one another in the Playoffs, so there was not a true seeding structure as there had been in past years.
In 2015, LA Galaxy II was victorious over the No. 1 seed Orange County Blues 2-0 in the second round as Orange County had a first-round bye, the last time the USL Championship implemented a bye week for the top seed. The Los Angeles club would advance all the way to the Finals that season before coming up short with a chance to win it all.
The Orange County Blues would bounce back to beat the No. 1 seed Sacramento Republic FC in the Playoffs the following season in 2016. The match was even at 0-0 at the end of regulation, forcing a shootout that was Orange County topple the favored club 5-4.
Just as Orange County did before them, future Roughneck Sammy Ochoa and the rest of the Sacramento squad would rebound the following Playoffs after being upset as the top seed to knock off a No. 1 seed themselves. This time it was Real Monarchs, the No. 1 seed from the East that season, who fell victim in a shootout following a 0-0 score after 90 minutes. Sacramento would advance after outscoring Monarchs 3-1 in the shootout.
Not only is it uncommon to see a lower-seeded club knock off a top seed, but you may have noticed another trend too – a good portion of these matches come down to penalty shootouts after regulation. Two of the three times a one seed as lost in the Playoffs in the last six years have come down to shootouts, and two other No. 1 seeds in 2018 and 2019 got through by the skin of their teeth.
In 2018, Nashville SC took the No. 1 seed FC Cincinnati and current Rowdies defender Forrest Lasso to a shootout, but FC Cincinnati pulled it out 6-5. The following season in 2019, top seed Phoenix Rising FC, the club that scored a USL Championship record 89 goals that season, was forced into a penalty shootout after 90 minutes of 0-0 match with Austin Bold FC and narrowly escaped the first round with an 8-7 shootout win.
In total, the No. 1 seed’s fate has come down to a penalty shootout four times from 2015-2019. This shootout inclination in the USL Championship Conference Quarterfinals provides an interesting prospect for FC Tulsa. On the year, FC Tulsa is 6-for-8 in penalty kick opportunities this season whereas Tampa Bay is 5-for-8. However, Rowdies’ keeper Evan Louro has faced six PK attempts this season, saving three of them with one missing the target. If it comes down to another shootout in the first round of the Playoffs, it will pit great FC Tulsa shooters against a great Tampa Bay Rowdies goalkeeper against one another.
In soccer, nothing is guaranteed. The underdog has the same opportunity to steal a match as the favorites do. USL Championship history has proved that the No. 1 seed is far from safe in the first round.
Can FC Tulsa fit into the glass slipper on Saturday night? It’s not as impossible as you might think.
